Every presidential election cycle sparks debate over the Electoral College—its history, mechanics, and political impact. Many of these discussions focus on instances where the winner of the popular vote was not elected President, and often suggesting alternative methods for selecting the President.
However, what’s rarely explored is whether these alternatives would have actually changed the outcome the election. That is not for lack of information: there is a wealth of election data and statistics available. It just seems no one has tried to answer the seemingly rhetorical questions they’ve posed. An analytical question with large databases to answer a question many have contemplated but no one has bothered to answer? Sign me up!
How the Electoral College Works
Under the current system, each state receives a number of Electoral College votes equal to its total representation in Congress—both its Senate and House members. In most states, the “Winner-Takes-All” approach is used, meaning the candidate with the most votes in the state wins all of that state’s Electoral College votes.
Congressional District Method
One alternative to the current system is the method used by Maine and Nebraska. In this approach, each congressional district in a state is awarded one Electoral College vote, which goes to the candidate who wins the most votes in that district. The two Electoral College votes representing the state’s Senate seats go to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote.
Here’s how the results of presidential elections since 2000 would have changed if every state used the Congressional District Method:
Proportional Method
Another proposed alternative is to allocate a state’s Electoral College votes proportional to the percent of votes each candidate receives in the state. This would mean that instead of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate with the most votes (as with Winner-Takes-All), the votes would potentially be split among the candidates.
Here’s how the results of elections since 2000 would have looked under the Proportional Method:
Popular Vote
Articles that contemplate the Electoral College immediately address the popular vote. We will not repeat that here as most people are already aware of the answer and it is not computationally difficult.
What about the 2024 Election?
See our update here!